Slightly scary image from Getty on this BBC news story, in the thumbnail Tony looks like he is doing a song and dance routine and more and more like George Bush. No image here as the rights are over 200 quid.
Interestingly the thumbnail image on the homepage of the BBC News site has been changed to a more appealing one, but the image I noted above is still on the internal page.
I've enjoyed the last few weeks campaigning mostly and I'm looking forward to having dinner with Lucy to celebrate my wedding anniversary then hanging out on irc and aim chatting with follow politicogeeks as the results roll in. My loose prediction, other than the likely Labour victory is for 75 LibDem seats which I'd hope will strengthen the opposition combined with a reduced Labour majority. I'd not expect Howard to last beyond this autumn and Tony might go in 2006. Ed Balls will be interesting to watch too. One issue I was sad that never featured as high as I wanted it was the fallacy of choice.
A couple of fun things to pass the time, Anno and Lucy have both made games for the slower bits of the evening. Anno's is a results bingo game to track most likely to be called results, with up to eight players. Lucy's game also has eight players, but is a "watch the marginals" game.
The BBC have interactive toys, a results service and a whole lot of fun games in their magazine too, oh and these political opinions are mine and not theirs...
I went to the Fabian Annual Conference on Saturday and had a very stimulating and enjoyable day. It turned out to be much more exciting than I had expected, two plenary session questions and a brush with TV stardom...
Opening keynote was Alan Millburn setting out the position for Labour for the coming election. Then a good session on the global role for Britain and Europe, plus a session on local government, which was informative, if very focused on the role of the local council, rather than the activities of it.
Highlight of the day had to be twofold, asking Alan Millburn why choice is a necessity for modern Britain. I asked him a question in the opening keynote, "Why do we need choice, does this mean the choice between a poor school and a good school, a poor hospital and a good hospital, can we not have a good level of basic provision for everyone?" I felt he dodged the question by saying that the rich have had choice for decades and it was time for the poor to have this choice, but I think they'd rather know that the local hospital or primary was up to scratch. I then got voxpopped by Channel 4, but it wasn't broadcast. Questions about choice were a theme of the conference, as noted in this Guardian article on schools.
Then I managed to get a question pulled out the of hat in the final plenary on what would happen to Europe if Britain or France voted no to the constitution. This got good replies from David Aaronovitch, Ed Balls and Sunder Katwala, plus the question was featured in this Observer article, paraphrasing the response from Ed Balls.
Lots more coverage linked to from the Fabian site.
I've been mentally connecting a few things together in my mind over the past few days, all of them pointing at a question about sense of worth, recognition or achievement, each article comes from a different stance, yet I see them pointing to the same place.
The first is the New Statesman essay from the 8th November issue, this is about the lack of other measures of public value, save money that our culture promotes. Celebrity is just another aspect of this, many people are famous for money or association, Heat is full of them.
Sunday evening, last week, there was an episode of Panorama on the notion of a Winner takes all Britain, exporing the consequences of following the commercial model to its fullest extent. The website for the programme contains a mine of interesting facts and some interesting opinions on the type of society this will create, I think I side with Professor Robert Frank.
Lastly in this triptych of prompts there is the new report from Demos, Tom Loosemore drew my attention to the report on the new ProAms. These people are the groups who in their spare time make offerings to the world of professional quality, but not as part of their full time employment. There is a launch event hosted by Demos on the 30th November. A short overview by Charles Leadbeater in Fast Company is available, prior to publication of the full report, at the end of the month.
I'm all for this rise of the amateur again, it reminds me of a more egalitarian view on the gentleman explorer or scientist of the late 1800s, with not only the rich men allowed to participate. One drawback is that you do end up working all the time, I'm often seen on the train with my powerbook perched on my lap hacking away at some template code or some blog post.
The people that Demos highlight, the ProAms, are key to changing this view on the world and moving the point of recognition from wealth to a more rounded view of achievement. The competition is strong though from the tabloid and celeb-based press and the notion that someone is "worth" an amount of money. Both of these mitigate against a wider definition of the achievement of an individual.
On the whole this philosophy is about using your talents and abilities for personal satisfaction and for the benefit of others, rather than for pure personal gain or for the benefit of some shareholders. Those of us lucky enough to be able to work and play in the same areas have a small advantage, but there is no reason why we cannot all participate. It is only a small step beyond the volunteer of the past, just a more focused participation.
To tie all of this together a bit, perhaps if we all did a bit more ProAm work then we'd see less of the world being about money and worth. Perhaps a bit more about what people did or contributed to local communities and interest groups. There is also an interesting aspect of this about how those in their 60s and older can contribute their skills and experience, hopefully in a manner that gives them consultancy income, but to the benefit of all. Mentoring small companies is something that I know Lucy's Dad and mine both do. There is something beyond working in a charity shop that the generation who went to university in the 60s can offer.
It is very idealistic, but I'd certainly prefer to live in a world where value was placed on contribution and knowledge rather than on brand labels and conspicuous consumption.
So, it looks very likely that Bush has won, all down to Ohio today. It was 2000 all over again, Democrat win seemed likely early on, then one by one states reporting with no change. I went to sleep at 2:30am and was feeling dimly optimistic, by 6:30 when I woke the writing was on the wall. I do believe in democracy and so, as Bush has won the public vote, he should be the President. The increased turn out at least might see a long term lift in the numbers of people participating in politics, which can only be for the better.
Lucy and I chatted about the outcome this morning and some things we came up with were, as follows
On the plus side, Bush now has to sort out Afghanistan and the mess in Iraq. Also within the next four years, something will have to happen with the prisoners in Guantanimo, at least you'd hope so.
There is also the question of the enormous debt he has run up, by offering tax cuts and fighting expensive wars. The faltering US economy is a key issue for him to address, more of the same will ruin the US, health care provision was a strong issue in the election and perhaps he'll come under pressure to address this. On that note, the huge debt means massive foreign capital is needed to fund it, this means a likely medium term discounted dollar, so the dollar looks set long term to fall 30 percent, so cheaper Canon cameras and Powerbooks...
A Hillary Clinton win is looking likely in 2008, she is a charismatic Senator and if she stood, might well do better than any future Republican candidate, certainly she'd not need to establish a reputation with the American people.
Finally it seems more likely that Europe will unite to respond to a second Bush term, which might lead to a ratified constitution and a stronger future for a coherent Europe.
On the other hand, it is likely to lead to a more insular US, focusing on scaring the life out of its inhabitants and securing its borders, by fighting wars "over there". I think the Artic and Alaskan wilderness is screwed, the climate with Cheney in charge is likely to be more ruined. Kyoto looks like a distant hope now, even with Russia looking likely to ratify it.
Movements to build a collaborative democratic set of world institutions like the International Criminal Court and a revitalised United Nations will have to take a back seat, as Bush is unlikely to want to engage.
A more faith based conservative right in charge will darkens the outlook for gay rights, abortion, immigration. Virtually all the states voted against gay marriage for example.
I'd along with many others like to see a US which will stop wanting to "lead" the world and sit down and collaborate with the rest of the world. All this talk of the world superpower only feeds into this sense of the USA as an aloof different entity. I'm not sure what it will take to make them realise that working with others is better than going it alone. The damage Bush has pent up in the national debt he has largely amassed might change things, he needs other countries money.
Moving more locally, in the UK, it seems likely a third Labour term will happen, a result the other way might have put some pressure on Tony Blair, however it means the party will still have Bush on the Oval office reminding the Labour rebels about the war and making Tony continue to seem George's pet, though that might change in a second term. Some further analysis from BBC News
I have been avidly following the US election, Guardian, BBC, Independent. I do want a Kerry victory, mainly as I do not believe that Bush is good for America and as the dominant power in the world, this is not a good situtation for the planet to be in. Many issues are going by the way side for this President who cares more for the lifestyle of the rich and the dominance of American commerce, than he does for American's role in the world. I'm thinking of Kyoto and drilling for oil in Alaska, amongst other issues. In terms of world politics, I cannot understand the intentions of a man who seems to just want to pick fights with the world and then move onto the next country, before he has done his duty on clearing up the first.
Today I found that George Soros in the Independent put it in a manner that made sense to me. This is an election between those with faith and those who are prepared to reason with the world. It is almost medieval in nuture, between the fervent belief that George W Bush instigates in his followers, versus the rationalists who are prepared to address the complexity of the world today. America is often depicted as two countries, all the recent maps have shown the coasts as Democrat and the interior as Republican, the flux is the mainly the upper mid-west, plus other costal areas. I only hope that those people who can see beyond the borders of the USA get out and vote. I want an America that is prepared to talk to others and engage with the issues that are essential for building a world for all of us.
You cannot impose democracy by cruise missile and helicopter gunship, you can only hope to engage and encourage the majority view in any country that working with others is better than going alone. Water shortages, poverty, Aids, global warming, peace in the Middle East, the former southern Soviet Union and countless other places will only come about through dialog, not military tough talk and absolute unquestionable belief.
You can see why Tony rarely goes on the Today programme, John Humphreys does well, Tony almost flounders. The defining moment is over the war and Tony's loss of trust.
John Humphreys says (paraphrased)
You have lost the trust of the country,
they will not trust you to take them to war
therefore you cannot be prime minister.
Today programme website and the interview between Tony Blair and John Humphreys, important listening if you have 15 minutes to spare, powerful stuff.
New weblog created to support the ID cards consultation process, created by my friend Mark Simpkins. He has taken every paragraph of the consultation document and made a weblog post of it, opening the entire document up for public commentary.
I think that this is a great idea, it is a pity that other Government Bills are not treated in the same manner. The new European Constitution would be a good choice and might assuage some peoples' feelings over this document if they could actually read it. It is available as a PDF, so you can read it (other languages), just not comment on it.
Absolute Power is a truely delightful and funny political comedy, I saw several of the episodes being recorded before christmas. It reminds me of the Yes, Minister series, DVD - Series 1, 2, 3.
Also it has been quite an issue this week. Regardless, it is required listening.
I've just watched the coverage of Greg Dyke leaving, Greg's last email. I feel like I have been robbed, Blair's insistence that the apology from yesterday was not enough has forced a great and popular leader of the BBC from office. WRT the Hutton report, I feel that the Independent has the best take on it.
